In 1918 the Spanish Flu (January 1918 – December 1920) was an unusually deadly H1N1 influenza virus that became the biggest pandemic in history. It infected 500 million people around the world, or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic.
The death toll of the Spanish Flu is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.
In December 2019, the Covid-2019 virus appeared suddenly in China and rapidly spread to the rest of the world. After having been sort of contained to China, the Virus is suddenly spreading fast reaching Asia, ( Japan and Korea), Europe ( Italy, Spain, and France), Latin America and finally the USA where the first casualty was announced today.
Two days ago, The World Health Organization (WHO) announced that a global pandemic of the coronavirus hasn’t yet arrived—but is highly possible. That’s an opinion increasingly shared by epidemiologists, and America’s CDC has been warning about the highly likely development of the virus in Aerica in the coming weeks.
Scientists are troubled by a number of facts about this unique virus with no clear origin. It is now established that it did not originate from the Wuhan Animal market as initially thought.
The virus is new. Covid-2019 sequence has been decoded and has never been observed before. It is however 96 % similar to a bat coronavirus that usually does not affect humans.
The virus is exceptionally contagious. There are no other known cases of viruses that transmit so quickly and with so little human contact. Researchers are still trying to understand how it spreads and they have established that it spreads in many different ways with an amazing ability to stay alib=ve in different environments.
The virus seems to randomly cause serious illnesses in some cases and not others as if some specific environments or situations suddenly triggered an infectious inflammation that is almost impossible to cure.
Although its death rate is lower than the death rate of SARS, when certain conditions are reached, even in healthy patients, death is almost ineluctable regardless of the means used to combat the infection.
Cases of transmission with NO TRACEABLE link to the origin of COVID-19 in China are becoming more common. Frighteningly, deaths are emerging in countries with few reported cases, suggesting a much wider undetected pattern of infection.
On December 14th 2019, in our Weekly Market review titled “BEWARE OF THE HERMIT” we highlighted the very symbolic trip taken by Jung Un, his wife and his top lieutenants on Dce 4 2019 to ride to the Sacred Mount Paektu on immaculate white horses.
The North Korean leader has often visited Mount Paektu before making major policy decisions, using it as a way to show his resolve to his people and to the outside world. He took the same trip before assassinating his uncle and analysts are holding their breath this time around because of his two visits in two months and because of the timing of his visit.
The final paragraph of the KCNA statement announcing the ride read: “All the officials who accompanied him to the top of the mountain felt overflowing emotion and joy and convinced that there will be a great operation to strike the world with wonder again and advance the Korean revolution a step forward.”
Experts on North Korea worried about the terms “there will be a great operation to strike the world.” In the previous two months Kim said that if North Korea and the US did not make a deal by the end of 2019, Kim would hand Donald Trump and the world an extremely harmful Christmas present.
Since then, nothing happened. But North Korea analysts do not believe that Kim Jung Un would have or has remained idle. His internal credibility would be far too much affected.
In this article, we shall explore linking these three “unrelated” events in a possible theory that could explain the sudden appearance, out of nowhere, of this unusual virus that has first hit China and now is hitting the rest of the world.
Our analytical process is based on exhaustive analysis and that entails exploring every possibility, even the most remote ones, to assess their plausibility and, more importantly, their consequences.
And the exercise is far LESS futile than may appear because, as investors can imagine, the geopolitical and financial consequences are extremely different if Covid-2019 is an “accident” of nature, or if it is “an act of Biological Warfare” initiated by Kim Jung Un.
Appear IDLE when you are ACTIVE !
In his “Art of War” Sun Tzu claims that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting and that surprise is a core principle of the nine principle of wars.
In this section, he develops the concept that the enemy should never know where you stand: you must appear close when you are far, far when you are close, strong when you are weak, weak when you are strong, active when you are idle and idle when you are actually idle.
This is exactly where Kim Jung Un stands today.
After his extremely symbolic threats, nothing has happened over Christmas and New Year, on the surface, but suddenly a new and previously unknown pathogen virus appeared in China in the middle of December 2019.
It took a full month for the Chinese authorities to acknowledge the seriousness and the nature of the flu outbreak and since then, entire regions of China have been quarantined, the virus has contaminated close to 80’000 people and killed in excess of 2’800 people.
And now, suddenly, the Chinese epidemic is spreading around the world randomly, exploding in Japan, Korea, Iran, Italy, Spain, Brazil and thirty more countries with sometimes no links whatsoever with the supposed initial foyer in Wuhan.
Suddenly, 100 Millions of people are quarantined, factories are closed, people don’t go out to shop or eat and the impact of the world economy – and the financial markets – could be significant if Covid-2019 proves to be a modern version of the Spanish almost exactly 100 year later.
What a scary Christmas present would Kim Jung Un have sent to the world, forcing it to re-consider their ways of dealing with him.
Could Covid-2019 be a genetically modified virus ?
A genetically modified virus is a virus that has been altered or generated using biotechnology methods, and remains capable of infection. Genetic modification involves the directed insertion, deletion, artificial synthesis or change of nucleotide bases in viral genomes.
Modifying viruses is a process that is very frequently used in attempts to cure cancer and other rare genetic diseases. Viral vectors are tools commonly used by molecular biologists to deliver genetic material into cells. This process can be performed inside a living organism (in vivo) or in cell culture (in vitro).
Viruses have evolved specialized molecular mechanisms to efficiently transport their genomes inside the cells they infect, which is why they are commonly explored as therapeutic avenues.
Recent advancements in technology in producing DNA-based vaccines, together with the growing knowledge of the immune system, have provided new insights into the identification of viruses needed for the development of highly targeted vaccines.
Genetically modified viruses and genetically engineered virus-vector vaccines however possess significant unpredictability and a number of inherent harmful potential hazards.
For all these vaccines, safety assessment concerning unintended and unwanted side effects with regard to targeted vaccinees has always been the main focus. Important questions concerning effects on nontargeted individuals within the same species or other species remain unknown.
What we know today from the DNA – sequencing of Covid-2019 is that is has 96 % of the genes of a widely spread coronavirus that affects bats in nature, but does not usually transmit to human beings.
Every genetically engineered virus starts from a virus that already exists in nature and where only a few genes are modified. Science had not yet reached the stage where genetically-engineered viruses can be created from scratch.
So yes, not only Covid-2019 derives form a Virus existing in nature, but it has the volumetric characteristics that would make him potentially a genetically-modified virus.
If the North Koreans have works on genes that affect transmission in a non-traditional way and on sudden evolutions in certain conditions, then tis could explain the speed of contamination even before the appearance of symptoms and the sudden and random development of serious illnesses even in healthy patients.
Does North Korea have the capability of developing such viruses?
Amidst the growing threat of North Korea’s nuclear program, the assassination of Kim Jong-Un’s half-brother via VX nerve agent in February 2017 brought renewed interest in North Korea’s other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs – chemical and biological weapons.
If used on a large scale, these weapons can cause not only tens of thousands of deaths, but also create panic and paralyze societies, which is exactly what is happening right now.
Accurately assessing the threat from North Korea’s biological weapons is challenging.
Whereas North Korea has publicly declared its will to become a nuclear power many times, it has been less overt about its intention or capability for biological weapons. BW capabilities are inherently hard to detect and measure.
While nuclear programs can be monitored by the number of nuclear tests and the success of missile tests, weaponizing and cultivating pathogens can stay invisible behind closed doors. Moreover, equipment used for BW production is often dual-use for agriculture, making external monitoring and verification virtually impossible.
Intelligence reports and testimonials from defectors over the last several decades indicate that North Korea has the intent and capability for sustaining a biological weapons program.
South Korean sources report that North Korea established a biological weapons program under Kim Il-Sung. According to recent defector Tae Young-Ho, a former North Korean diplomat, North Korea’s chemical and biological weapons program started in the early 1960s, and according to a South Korean Defense White Paper, North Korea began weaponizing biological agents in the 1980s.
South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense has disclosed partial intelligence reports which, in addition to several intelligence sources from the United States and the former Soviet Union, indicate that North Korea has the capability to cultivate pathogens for BW purposes and weaponize them. North Korea is known to master the production of at least 13 pathogens.
Since his inauguration, Kim Jong-Un has stated the importance of agricultural reform as “the frontline of socialism.” A large aspect of this reform was to increase pesticide production, but while most pesticides worldwide are chemical, North Korea’s interest in organic, biological pesticides has increased considerably. Analysts point out that this shift from chemical to bio-pesticides could signal an expansion of North Korea’s BW program.
In March 2017, according to Rodong Sinmun, North Korea built an organic fertilizer production complex that covers “thousands of square meters” in Gangnamgun, Pyongyang that is claimed to be capable of producing thousands of tons of organic fertilizers.
A series of photos of the Pyongyang Biotechnical Institute released by the North Korean state media in 2015 raised concerns for dual-use. Analysis of these images revealed that the Pyongyang Biotechnical Institute could produce military-sized batches of BWs, specifically anthrax.
Kim Jong-Un’s regular visits to the Pyongyang Bio-technical Institute, which is run by the Korean People’s Army Unit 810, could be interpreted as strategic messaging about its Biological weapon program.
Furthermore, the Pyongyang Biotechnical Institute has been recently alleged to be responsible for the implementation of the assassination of Kim Jong-Nam via VX nerve agent as well.
Interestingly enough, in 2015 and 2016, Chinese and North Korean academic scientists jointly published research undertaken in the Svalbard Islands: on the detection of novel bacterial species from permafrost.
These studies employed DNA sequencing to identify novel species of bacteria isolated from the tundra soil of Svalbard islands, resulting in new species of the Hymenobacter, Terrimonas, and Roseomonas genera.
It is likely that the typing of these genomes could provide know-how for biological weapons development efforts.
It is unclear whether North Korean scientists involved in these works were commissioned to do so from a high level within the North Korean government, or part of a basic science inquiry in conjunction with Chinese scientists, as studying organisms that live in extreme conditions is important for advancements in basic science and bio-technology.
What is really noteworthy, however, is that North Korean scientists undertook these studies as the first authors, i.e. the lead scientist, given that their capacity and track record of conducting research internationally is supposed to be limited.
North Korea’s choice of delivery vehicles for its Biological warfare is unknown and will likely be tailored to the strategic and tactical objectives for each weapon. Missiles, drones, airplanes, sprayers, and human vectors are potential means of BW delivery.
Testimonies from defectors allege that North Korea uses human subjects in testing biological and chemical weapons
North Korea’s culture of prioritizing military objectives over human lives could drive it to use human vectors to deliver and spread BW.
North Korea has 200,000 special forces; even a handful of those special forces armed with BW would be enough to devastate China or South Korea.
What is alarming about human vectors is that they do not need sophisticated training or technology to spread BW amongst the targets, and they are difficult to detect in advance of an attack. It is theoretically possible that North Korean sleeper agents disguised as cleaning and disinfection personnel could disperse BW agents with backpack sprayers or simply by being infected themselves with Covid-19.
North Korea constant commercial interaction with China, the long incubation period of Covid-19 and its contamination abilities even before the symptoms appear could very well explain the appearance of the outbreak in Wuhan, China as North Koreans travel regularly to China but are banned from travelling to South Korea or the US.
From there the spreading of the virus to other countries from the international manufacturing center that is Wuhan becomes quite natural.
Would North Korea want to use such weapons at this stage ?
Although the objectives and doctrine of North Korea’s Biological Warfare are not really well understood, security experts point out that BW could be tactical:
North Korea is likely to use biological weapons before or at the beginning of a conflict to disrupt society and create panic, incapacitate societies, and/or cause a significant military diversion.
It may also be used to show strength and display an asymmetric capability of inflicting damages an expose the weakness of much more powerful nations on the conventional warfare terrain.
Attacking the economy of China and, maybe soon of the USA, could be a prelude to negotiations on the status of North Korea.
North Korea’s official broad objective is to “drive out the aggressive forces of the U.S., terminate the dominance and interference of foreign forces… and fight for the unification of the motherland through the unification of the Korean peninsula.
Numerous studies conclude that far from being irrational, North Korea’s regime is playing a game of survival that implies asymmetric warfare and hybrid warfare. The ultimate objective of Kim Jung Un is the opening up of his economy WITH the survival of his unique political regime.
As a strategic purpose, Biological Warfare could potentially change radically the perception of the rapport de force with North Korea from both China and America’s perspectives.
What more than a weakening of China’s economy and a collapse of the US stock market could weaken the two super-powers without real consequences for the DRKP ?
The conclusion of the above is that the possibility that Covid-19 is a genetically-modified virus launched by North Korea CANNOT BE EXCLUDED…
It is a remote possibility, but if it was the case, it would have devastating consequences on the world financial markets.
After weeks of turning a blind eye and ignoring the global Corona Virus pandemic, the world and the financial markets are finally waking-up to the reality of the Pandemic.
They are waking up to the reality that a portion of the world’s population dying horrible deaths over the next few months will not be offset by quantitative easing by the FED or Central banks.
The economic impact is becoming greater by the day. This weekend we learned that all Asian cruises have been cancelled. More factories in South Korea have been shut down for lack of Chinese parts. Technology conferences in San Francisco have been cancelled. Some 80% of all Chinese flights are grounded.
GM assembly lines in Michigan are slowing, both from missing parts and disappearing customers. And we have just learned that a section of Italy near Milan has been quarantined, thanks to a major outbreak there. We can almost hear the sound of the world’s economy grinding to a halt.
According to a research doctor who worked for San Francisco based Gilead Sciences (GILD)
returning from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the virus, the Chinese are wildly understating the spread of the Corona virus by perhaps 90% to minimize embarrassment to the government, which kept the outbreak secret for a full two months.
He expects it will be many months before the pandemic peaks. It will not end until the number of deaths hits the tens of thousands in China and at least the hundreds in the US, or more if the epidemic starts spreading there.
There is no doubt that Covid-2019 will take a significant toll on the world economic growth this year.
Then there is the worst-case scenario.
If Corona reaches the proportion of the 1918 Spanish flu type pandemic, where even only 0.01 % of the world’s population dies over the course of a year, then we are looking at a global depression and an 80% stock market crash.
Hopefully, modern science, antibiotics, and rapid response research teams will prevent that from happening. We already have the Corona DNA sequence and several vaccines are in testing.
In 1918, they didn’t even know what DNA was and antibiotics were 20 years into the future.