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March 2017

7 posts

EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS vs POLITICAL CRISIS,  WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE US DOLLAR ?

There are plenty of explanations for the weaker-than-expected May jobs report, but the big picture is clear: The U.S. labor market has lost some of its mojo.

Monthly payroll gains are averaging 162,000 this year, a step down from the 2016 pace of 187,000, following a below-forecast rise last month and downward revisions to March and April in Labor Department figures released Friday.

While the unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.3 percent, the employment-to-population ratio also declined. Wages failed to accelerate as expected, with annual growth remaining below highs for the previous expansion. read more

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THE DEATH OF OIL

OIL DEMAND IN CONTRACTION

As oil prices sag despite OPEC’s renewed efforts to shore up world crude markets, Wall Street banks have more bad news for the producer group: the outlook for next year isn’t great either.

Oil futures have lost 8 percent since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on May 25 to keep output constrained through the first quarter of 2018 in a bid to clear a global glut. read more

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NIKKEI BACK ABOVE 20’000

The bulls are back in charge after a second weekly advance pushed the S&P 500 Index to a fresh record. But look a little more closely and the signs of unease in the stock market are hard to ignore.

It’s visible in fund flows, where investors are rotating from U.S. stocks to the rest of the world at the fastest pace in two years. And short sellers are getting aggressive, raising bearish bets in three of the past four months. read more

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Exxon, Shell, and Chevron plan to spend $10 billion in U.S. shale this year


EXXON, ROYAL DUTCH and CHEVRON are jumping into American shale with gusto, planning to spend a combined $10 billion this year, up from next to nothing only a few years ago.

The giants are gaining a foothold in West Texas with such projects as Bongo 76-43, a well which is being drilled 10,000 feet beneath the table-flat, sage-scented desert, and which then extends horizontally for a mile, blasting through rock to capture light crude from the sprawling Permian Basin. read more

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Trump’s Economic Optimism Not Reflected in US Auto Sales

Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV led major automakers posting steeper U.S. sales declines than analysts projected, putting the industry on course for a fourth consecutive month of shrinking demand.

Car and light truck deliveries fell 7.1 percent at Ford and 6.6 percent for Fiat Chrysler last month. General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. also both reported decreases that were bigger
than analysts’ estimates, while Nissan Motor Co. posted a surprise drop.
    
Higher auto prices are contributing to the slowdown in U.S. auto sales. The average new-car price in the U.S. rose about 2 percent over the past year, according to data from TrueCar Inc.’s ALG. read more

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Euro-Area Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace in Six Years

Euro-area factories expanded output at the fastest pace since 2011 as the currency bloc’s economy continued to gather momentum.
    
A gauge of manufacturing activity rose to 56.7 in April from 56.2 the previous month, IHS Markit reported on Tuesday. An April 21 preliminary estimate was for an increase to 56.8.
    
With the European Central Bank showing little hurry to end extraordinary stimulus, global trade strengthening and political risk receding as centrist Emmanuel Macron looks poised to become
the next French president, the currency bloc’s recovery is set to broaden. read more

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